Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 21.336861 25.610112 30.300961 35.804214 42.054495 48.903503 56.946122
2025-09-21 15.350095 21.033695 27.896260 36.666520 47.443117 60.116918 76.003056
2025-09-28 10.908125 16.765937 24.429865 34.922017 48.621225 65.600305 87.904374
2025-10-05 8.957945 15.130140 23.741693 36.174400 53.160416 75.031307 104.732482
2025-10-12 7.422926 13.695709 22.979057 37.029574 56.994351 83.543803 120.608623
2025-10-19 6.199392 12.450884 22.230035 37.683591 60.425085 91.534026 136.011166
2025-10-26 5.297688 11.526401 21.782376 38.631927 64.206294 100.058791 152.373576
2025-11-02 4.306582 10.230442 20.537272 38.174796 65.809129 105.522059 164.661678
2025-11-09 3.613286 9.327236 19.789618 38.364741 68.298649 112.257213 178.878897
2025-11-16 2.973205 8.379444 18.815394 38.045510 69.911873 117.709098 191.389593
2025-11-23 2.360747 7.334198 17.500546 36.984929 70.221125 121.164065 201.055806
2025-11-30 2.067659 6.938689 17.347193 37.898175 73.717500 129.500698 218.085922
2025-12-07 1.636748 6.122501 16.310387 37.246127 74.790030 134.486526 230.834629
2025-12-14 1.396465 5.734281 16.102170 38.115202 78.504231 143.791916 250.514638
2025-12-21 1.021539 4.819398 14.591607 36.315785 77.454339 145.465276 258.568789
2025-12-28 0.895196 4.619662 14.656890 37.606599 81.899650 156.110321 280.781281
2026-01-04 0.766131 4.359832 14.533484 38.487894 85.633807 165.708576 301.620655
2026-01-11 0.647558 4.086093 14.326344 39.161802 89.003046 174.801334 321.901589
2026-01-18 0.558089 3.885022 14.268862 40.138841 92.971179 185.012246 344.226326
2026-01-25 0.436463 3.478254 13.585769 39.667895 94.146593 190.516126 359.110858
2026-02-01 0.355404 3.206463 13.221242 39.863585 96.593841 198.251741 377.795077
2026-02-08 0.277143 2.889769 12.658958 39.534694 97.970514 204.151175 393.596025
2026-02-15 0.201132 2.511387 11.818431 38.441889 97.731477 207.175551 404.687635